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by Ross Givens
Hey, Ross here:
Lots of volatility has the market digests the Fed’s messaging.
But let’s look at a counterintuitive development that may signal a bigger rally ahead.
This is the 10-year Treasury yield this week, which for the past couple years has been reliably negatively correlated with the stock market.
That red circle is when Powell started speaking after the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
We all know what happened to stocks – which kept falling the longer he spoke.
But as you can see, the 10-year Treasury yield fell instead – and is now about 10 basis points lower compared to before Powell’s press conference.
It’s too early to definitively tell what this counterintuitive development means yet.
But one likely possibility is that when the market is finally done digesting the Fed’s message, it could signal a bigger upward move ahead.
Insight of the Day
Don’t be surprised if we see another shallow pullback or sideways movement as the market digests the Fed’s messaging.
During a big rally, there can be weeks where the market seemingly goes nowhere – or even falls a little.
We saw that in December of last year – right before another big move up in January.
Couple the Fed’s recent messaging with the fact that the market has been on a tear these past few weeks – and I believe another pullback is due.
So don’t be surprised if that happens. I’m confident it’ll resolve upwards.
In the meantime, don’t ignore the opportunity that’s still right in front of our faces – earnings season.
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