By Shah Gilani, Total Wealth Research, 2024-06-28
There's a season for everything… especially stocks.
Seasonality and cyclicality in trading and investing are not merely trends or passing fads…
They are the heartbeat of the markets, pulsing with predictable opportunities for smart investors.
Cyclical investing reflects the ebb and flow of economic cycles. Investors who understand these cycles rotate into sectors poised for growth during specific phases. That gives them an opportunity maximize their portfolio returns over time.
As a 40-year market veteran, I've witnessed firsthand how these patterns can unlock substantial profits.
You can find these seasonal surges and cyclical upturns in many sectors.
Nature's Rhythm
Seasonality is huge in the commodities sector.
The prices of certain commodities correlate with specific times of the year. Those prices are driven by factors such as weather patterns, agricultural planting and harvesting cycles, and global demand shifts.
For instance, corn and soybean prices are influenced by planting and harvest seasons.
As spring approaches, farmers prepare their fields and plant crops, which in turn drives up prices as demand for these commodities spikes.
Then during harvest time in the fall, increased supply can lead to temporary price dips as markets adjust.
Seasonal Corn Prices
Knowing these cycles helps traders buy and sell at the right times. (And if you're using leveraged futures or ETF trades, including with options, you can make a lot of money.)
Energy commodities like natural gas and heating oil have obvious seasonal patterns driven by weather extremes.
Winter brings demand for heating fuels, pushing prices higher as cold snaps grip northern regions. During the summer, demand for cooling fuels like natural gas for electricity generation rises.
While commodities follow seasonal patterns closely tied to nature, other sectors have their own rhythms.
Predictable Peaks
Consumer spending shows cyclical behavior too. There are several peaks throughout the year including…
- Easter to Memorial Day
- Fourth of July
- Back-to-school shopping in August
- The December holiday season.
By investing in retail giants ahead of these peaks, investors can capitalize on seasonal spending trends.
The tech sector thrives on a slightly different cycle – the cycle of innovation. Companies release new products and updates at regular intervals. Investors can get in ahead of product launches or major tech events.
During periods of economic expansion, real estate and construction sectors do well as infrastructure projects gain momentum.
Cyclical investments in construction materials, homebuilders, and REITs can yield substantial returns as economic indicators point toward growth.
Even precious metals like gold and silver are not immune to seasonal influences.
A Season for Gold
Gold historically experiences a surge in demand during certain seasons in different countries around the world.
- Gold price rallies early in the year as we approach the Chinese New Year.
- It surges on massive gold-buying in India during Diwali, in late October and early November.
- It ends the year at its highest point during the Indian wedding season, when demand is high.
By following these types of economic cycles, investors are able to optimize their portfolio performance across many sectors.
But there are a few things to keep in mind…
A Cycle of Profits
Cyclical investing needs careful research, strategic timing, and a keen understanding of market dynamics.
It's important to diversify your portfolio across commodities, sectors, and asset classes to manage the risks associated with seasonal volatility and cyclical downturns.
You need patience and discipline as well. Don't chase short-term trends… allow the cycles to play out.
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