Introduction: Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, a prominent investment firm, recently boosted its holdings in Cencora, Inc. (NYSE: COR) – formerly known as AmerisourceBergen – by acquiring an additional 2,058 shares, a 4.7% increase in its stake ([1]). This brings Janney’s total ownership to 45,984 shares valued at roughly $13.8 million as of the end of the second quarter ([1]). Such insider confidence begs the question: what makes Cencora an attractive buy? Cencora is a Fortune 500 healthcare distribution and services company, among the largest global pharmaceutical wholesalers. Below, we delve into Cencora’s fundamentals – from its steady dividend strategy and solid financials to its valuation, debt profile, and risk factors – to understand the rationale behind Janney’s purchase.
Company Overview
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Cencora (ticker COR) is one of the “Big Three” U.S. pharmaceutical distributors, alongside McKesson and Cardinal Health. In August 2023, the company rebranded from AmerisourceBergen to Cencora, reflecting a broader vision beyond distribution ([2]). Cencora’s core business is sourcing and delivering a vast range of pharmaceuticals and healthcare products to pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics worldwide ([2]). In fiscal 2024, Cencora’s revenues exceeded $290 billion – highlighting the immense scale of drugs and medical products flowing through its channels ([3]). Despite razor-thin margins typical for the industry, Cencora has achieved consistent earnings growth by focusing on higher-value segments like specialty drugs and biosimilars, which have significantly boosted revenue even as generic drug prices face deflationary pressure ([4]). The company operates in two segments: U.S. Healthcare Solutions (its largest unit) and International Healthcare Solutions (expanded by the 2021 acquisition of Alliance Healthcare) ([2]). Cencora’s largest customers include Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Express Scripts (Cigna’s PBM), which accounted for ~26% and 14% of fiscal 2023 revenue, respectively ([2]) – underscoring how critical a few key partners are to its business.
Importantly, Cencora has exhibited resilient performance in recent quarters. For the quarter ended June 2024, it reported adjusted earnings of $3.34 per share, handily beating consensus and driven by surging demand for specialty medications (e.g. new weight-loss drugs like Wegovy) ([5]). Management accordingly raised its full-year 2024 earnings forecast to $13.55–$13.65 (adjusted EPS) – higher than prior guidance and analyst estimates ([5]). This strong execution and upward revision demonstrate Cencora’s ability to capitalize on healthcare trends (like specialty biologics and biosimilars) for growth. With a market capitalization near $59 billion and a beta of only 0.63 (indicating low volatility) ([1]), Cencora is viewed as a stable, defensive stock in the healthcare sector. These attributes set the stage for examining the company’s dividend policy, financial health, and valuation in detail – factors likely influencing Janney’s bullish stance.
Dividend Policy and Capital Returns
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Cencora offers a modest but reliable dividend payout, supplementing its growth story with income for shareholders. The current quarterly dividend stands at $0.55 per share, after an 8% increase approved by the Board in November 2024 ([6]). This marked an acceleration from the steady 5% annual dividend hikes Cencora had been delivering – for example, from $0.46 in late 2021 to $0.485 in 2022, then $0.510 in 2023 ([6]). The company has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years, reflecting a long-term commitment to returning cash to investors. However, the dividend yield remains relatively small due to the stock’s substantial price appreciation. At the recent share price (around $300), Cencora’s yield is roughly 0.7%–0.8% ([7]). This is well below the 1.5% average yield of the past decade ([7]), indicating the stock’s outperformance has outpaced dividend growth. The conservative payout ratio of ~22% of earnings ensures the dividend is extremely well-covered by profits ([7]). Even using GAAP earnings (depressed by unusual charges), the payout is under one-quarter of net income, so there is ample room for further increases. In short, Cencora’s dividend provides a small but growing income stream – essentially a bonus on top of capital gains.
Notably, Cencora favors share buybacks as a key capital return lever alongside its dividend. The company has authorized large repurchase programs in recent years and actively retired shares. In March 2024, the Board approved a new $2.0 billion buyback authorization, on the heels of a $1.0 billion program from 2023 ([6]) ([6]). During fiscal 2024 alone, Cencora repurchased 3.0 million shares for $682.3 million, including buying 1.9 million shares directly from Walgreens (WBA) for $427.4 million ([6]). This was part of facilitating WBA’s exit from its equity stake. In the prior fiscal year 2023, Cencora had also repurchased $191 million worth (largely from Walgreens) ([6]). These buybacks have helped offset dilution and drive earnings-per-share upward. They also signal management’s confidence in the intrinsic value of the company. As of Sept 2024, Cencora still had over $1.3 billion remaining under its buyback authorization, indicating capacity to continue supporting the stock ([6]). For investors like Janney, this balanced capital return approach – a steadily rising dividend plus opportunistic buybacks – is attractive. It returns cash without compromising growth investments, and it has contributed to a shrinking float (benefiting EPS and shareholders’ ownership stakes). Cencora’s cautious dividend policy also means the company retains significant earnings to reinvest in strategic initiatives or acquisitions.
Leverage, Balance Sheet & Debt Maturities
Despite handling hundreds of billions in drugs annually, Cencora operates with a manageable debt load and a strong liquidity buffer. The company’s long-term debt stood at about $4.39 billion as of September 30, 2024 ([6]). Relative to Cencora’s adjusted EBITDA and cash flows, this debt is quite modest – roughly 1.2× EBITDA by our estimates, reflecting an investment-grade profile. Indeed, Cencora carries credit ratings in the BBB+ category (S&P) and maintains substantial unused credit lines for flexibility ([6]). As of year-end FY2024, the company had zero drawn on its $2.4 billion revolving credit facility and its $1.45 billion receivables securitization facility, leaving over $4.4 billion in borrowing capacity if needed ([6]). This liquidity is more than sufficient to cover all short-term obligations and provides ammunition for growth opportunities or to weather any industry downturns.
Looking at the debt maturity schedule, Cencora has a favorable, long-term profile. It refinanced its only FY2024 maturity and now has no major debt coming due until March 2025, when $500 million of 3.25% senior notes mature ([6]). Thereafter, the next maturity isn’t until 2027 ($750 million of notes), with another $500 million in 2030 ([6]). Over half of Cencora’s debt matures in 2031 or later, including newly issued 5.125% notes due 2034 and $500 million tranches due in 2045 and 2047 ([6]). This laddered schedule means interest costs are largely fixed and locked in at attractive rates for the next decade-plus. The weighted average interest rate on Cencora’s debt was only ~3.6% in 2023 ([2]), and even with some newer 5% notes, overall interest expense remains well-covered by earnings. In 2023, net interest expense was $229 million versus income before tax of $2.16 billion ([2]) – a comfortable coverage ratio around 10×. The debt-to-equity ratio appears high (~3.6) at first glance ([1]), but this is due to the peculiar accounting of low book equity (a result of share buybacks and thin margins). In reality, leverage is low relative to cash generation, and the company’s working capital is financed largely through accounts payable and inventory turns rather than bank debt. Cencora’s quick ratio of 0.53 and current ratio of 0.90 are typical for a distributor that efficiently manages inventory and receivables ([1]).
Overall, Cencora’s balance sheet health likely reassures investors like Janney. The company has ample capacity to fund expansion or acquisitions (via cash or credit facilities) and to meet its known obligations (discussed below) without straining shareholders. In early November 2024, Cencora in fact announced a major deal to acquire Retina Consultants of America – and its strong finances enabled it to line up funding for this $4.3 billion cash outlay via a mix of cash and new debt ([6]). Even after this pending acquisition, leverage should remain moderate. Management has expressed commitment to maintaining a solid credit profile, and credit agreements impose covenants that the company has comfortably met ([6]) ([6]). In summary, Cencora’s prudent debt management and liquidity position are key positives that underlie its ability to invest in growth while continuing shareholder returns.
Valuation and Comparative Metrics
Cencora’s valuation reflects its steady growth prospects and defensive qualities, yet still appears reasonable relative to peers and earnings trajectory. At around $300 per share, Cencora trades at roughly 31× trailing earnings (GAAP basis) ([1]). This elevated trailing P/E is somewhat misleading, as GAAP net income was suppressed by one-time items (e.g. litigation credits/charges and amortization of acquisition intangibles). On a forward-looking basis, the stock is closer to 17–18× next-year earnings ([8]) after accounting for Cencora’s guided ~$13.6 adjusted EPS for 2024 ([5]). In other words, as legal charges normalize and cost savings from acquisitions kick in, the forward P/E ~18 is in line with or slightly below the broader market. It’s also in line with rival distributors – for instance, Cardinal Health trades around 16–17× forward earnings, and McKesson about 19–20× ([8]) ([9]). Cencora’s price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio stands near 1.4 ([1]), suggesting the valuation is not stretched relative to the company’s anticipated earnings growth (low double-digit % annually). Wall Street analysts forecast healthy mid-teens EPS growth fueled by share repurchases and rising specialty drug volumes. By traditional revenue multiples, Cencora looks extremely cheap – its market cap is only ~0.2× annual revenues. Of course, slim margins make P/S less meaningful in this sector, but it underscores the high volume, low-margin nature of the business.
Another lens is cash flow and FFO (funds from operations). While Cencora is not a REIT and doesn’t report FFO/AFFO, we can look at its operating cash flow relative to price. The company’s operating cash flow in FY2023 was over $2.7 billion ([2]) even after sizable opioid settlement payments, implying a price-to-cash flow ratio in the low-20s. Excluding working-capital noise, Cencora converts a significant portion of its earnings to free cash flow, which has funded its buybacks and dividends. The enterprise value to EBITDA multiple is also instructive: Cencora’s EV/EBITDA (using ~$3.5B adjusted EBITDA) is around 14×, again on par with peers given McKesson’s multiple in the mid-teens and Cardinal Health’s in the low teens. These valuation metrics indicate that Cencora is not a bargain-basement stock, but it is reasonably valued for a market leader with defensive characteristics and consistent growth. The stock’s 52-week trading range – from a low of $218.65 up to a high of $315.23 ([1]) – shows it has re-rated upward as investors recognized improving fundamentals (specialty drug tailwinds, resolution of legal uncertainties, etc.). Even near all-time highs, the forward multiple remains in a historically normal band for the company.
For an investor like Janney, the current valuation likely presents an attractive risk/reward balance. Cencora offers a blend of stability (beta < 0.7 ([1])), reliable growth, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, at a price that is not overly rich. Its dividend yield of ~0.7% is low, but the dividend growth rate (~5–8% annually) and ongoing buybacks contribute to total shareholder return. Moreover, any successful execution of new growth initiatives (such as the Retina Consultants acquisition or expansion in biosimilars) could lead to upside in earnings beyond current consensus – meaning the forward P/E could prove cheaper than it appears. It’s also worth noting that Cencora’s relative valuation vs. peers has improved; a couple of years ago, AmerisourceBergen traded at a discount due to opioid litigation overhang, but after settlements, that discount narrowed. Now, all three major distributors trade in a similar valuation range, reflecting the market’s view that industry risks are better understood. Cencora’s slight premium to Cardinal Health can be justified by its heavier mix of specialty drugs (which are growing faster and carry higher margins) ([4]) and by the lucrative long-term partnerships it has (e.g. Walgreens). If one believes in the continued growth of complex therapies, biosimilars, and global healthcare demand, Cencora’s valuation leaves room for stock appreciation, especially as it deploys cash for buybacks and earnings accretive deals.
Risks, Red Flags, and Challenges
Every investment carries risks, and Cencora is no exception. Here are key risk factors and potential red flags to consider:
– Customer Concentration & Contract Risk: Cencora is highly reliant on a few big customers – notably Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), which alone represented ~26% of revenue (and an even larger 38% of accounts receivable) in FY2023 ([2]) ([2]). Another 14% of sales came from Express Scripts (Cigna). The Walgreens relationship in particular is critical: Cencora has long-term agreements to supply all Walgreens pharmacies in the U.S. (through 2029) and Boots pharmacies in the UK (through 2031) ([2]). If Walgreens were to lose market share, aggressively renegotiate terms, or not renew the contract when it expires, it would significantly impact Cencora’s volumes and profitability. The risk is heightened now that Walgreens is divesting its equity stake in Cencora – WBA has sold down from ~17% ownership to about 6% as of early 2025 ([10]). Without an equity tie, future negotiations might be tougher. That said, the partnership is mutually beneficial, and Cencora’s performance has likely earned contract extensions so far. Still, investors must watch for any changes in these key partnerships.
– Legal and Opioid Litigation Liabilities: Cencora (as AmerisourceBergen) was a defendant in the nationwide opioid litigation. In 2022, it joined a global Distributor Settlement Agreement to resolve the vast majority of opioid lawsuits. The settlement, which included 48 states and thousands of local jurisdictions, requires Cencora to pay out $5.5 billion over about 18 years ([2]). As of Sept 2023, Cencora had accrued this full amount on its balance sheet and expected to pay roughly $407.5 million per year in the early years of the settlement ([2]). These payments will be a drag on cash flow for well over a decade. While the company has provisioned and can afford them, any unexpected acceleration or additional legal claims could hurt. Furthermore, a few holdout jurisdictions or new lawsuits (e.g. if another wave of opioid-related litigation emerges) remain a possibility ([2]) ([2]). Even beyond direct payments, the opioid crisis has prompted stricter regulations and could lead to opiate distribution taxes/fees in some states ([2]), which would raise costs. The bottom line is that opioid liabilities, though largely quantified, will consume cash that might otherwise have been used for buybacks or growth, and this remains an overhang on the industry.
– Thin Margins & Operational Risks: As a distributor, Cencora operates on razor-thin profit margins, with net margin typically well under 1%. This means there is little room for error – small cost overruns, bad debts, or pricing pressure can have an outsize effect on earnings. For example, periods of generic drug price deflation (which compress distribution fees) have hurt margins in the past. While generic pricing pressure has moderated recently ([4]), it could worsen again, especially if buyers (pharmacy chains or insurers) demand better terms. Additionally, working capital swings are a constant in this business; if Cencora misjudges inventory or if a major supplier changes terms, it could temporarily tie up cash or squeeze margins. The company also faces competitive pressure from its two large rivals – any loss of a major contract (say, if a hospital system or PBM awards more business to a competitor) could reduce volume. Technology/disintermediation is another risk: although unlikely in the near-term, there’s always a question if major drugmakers or pharmacies might attempt to bypass traditional wholesalers for certain products. Cencora must continuously prove its value through efficiency and service. Any operational slip – such as failure to deliver timely, or a supply chain disruption – could damage its reputation in this oligopolistic market.
– Cybersecurity and Data Breach Risk: In 2023, Cencora experienced a notable cybersecurity incident. The company disclosed in February 2024 that hackers had infiltrated its systems, stealing sensitive personal and medical data of individuals ([11]). This breach, while not reported to significantly disrupt operations, raises concerns about data security given the critical role Cencora plays in the healthcare supply chain. A major systems outage or breach (e.g., ransomware) could halt distribution activities, potentially impacting patient access to medications and exposing the company to liability. Cencora has since bolstered its cybersecurity measures ([11]), but the event serves as a red flag that even “plumbing” companies in healthcare can be targets of sophisticated attacks. Ongoing vigilance (and investment in IT security) will be required to prevent future breaches that could have material operational or financial impact.
– Acquisition Integration & Strategy Shift: Cencora’s pending acquisition of Retina Consultants of America (RCA) illustrates its growth ambitions but also introduces new risks. The deal involves a $4.6 billion purchase of a physician practice management network – a business quite different from drug wholesaling ([6]). Cencora will take an 85% ownership in RCA’s ophthalmology clinics (with doctors retaining 15%) and may pay up to $500 million more if performance targets are met ([6]). This move into providing healthcare services (managing retina specialist practices) is significant. If the acquisition closes as expected in 2024–2025, Cencora will need to integrate hundreds of medical professionals and clinic operations. Challenges include blending cultures, retaining key physicians (since much of the value walks out the door each day), and realizing anticipated synergies (e.g. using Cencora’s scale to lower procurement costs for those clinics). The company has lined up $3.3 billion in bridge financing for the deal ([6]), which will increase debt and interest expense. If the expected growth or profits from RCA don’t materialize, Cencora could be left with a debt-heavy balance sheet and goodwill impairments. More broadly, this acquisition signals a strategic broadening beyond distribution to “healthcare solutions” – a strategy competitors like McKesson have also pursued (e.g. oncology practices). While it can unlock higher margins, it puts Cencora in a new, less familiar business with different risks (regulatory risks around patient care, higher operating costs, etc.). Investors will be watching closely to see if management can execute in this arena. A failed integration or poor returns on this sizable investment would be a red flag for capital allocation.
– Other Regulatory and Industry Risks: As a global company, Cencora faces various regulatory risks – from drug pricing reforms (e.g., U.S. government efforts to lower medication costs could squeeze distributor fees) to trade and tariff issues (for international segments). The pharmaceutical supply chain is also subject to periodic shocks – for instance, drug shortages or pandemics – which can alter volumes unpredictably. Cencora benefited during COVID-19 from distributing vaccines and treatments, but also had to manage volatility. Future public health initiatives or changes in healthcare policy (like shifts in how Medicare or insurers reimburse drugs, especially specialty drugs) could impact the economics for distributors. Additionally, foreign currency fluctuations affect Cencora’s international revenues and earnings (the stronger dollar has been a headwind at times). Finally, environmental/social governance (ESG) factors are emerging – distributors have been criticized in the opioid context and could face reputational risks if they don’t adapt to evolving ESG expectations. Any major controversy or governance failure would be a red flag for investors.
In sum, Cencora’s investment merits are coupled with a suite of risks that need monitoring. The company’s ability to continue delivering steady results will depend on how well it manages these challenges – keeping key customers happy, navigating legal obligations, protecting its razor-thin margins, and integrating new ventures – all while guarding its critical infrastructure against cyber and operational disruptions.
Outlook and Open Questions
Cencora’s future looks promising but comes with open questions that investors like Janney are surely considering:
– Can Specialty Growth Keep Powering Results? Cencora’s recent outperformance has been driven by booming specialty drug volumes (for complex conditions like cancer, diabetes, and rare diseases) ([4]). With new categories like GLP-1 weight-loss drugs rolling out, Cencora stands to benefit from high-cost therapies flowing through its network. Biosimilars (lower-cost biologic alternatives) are another opportunity – analysts forecast the U.S. biosimilar market to reach $100+ billion by 2033 ([4]), and distributors like Cencora will play a key role. The question is how long can these tailwinds last? A few years of double-digit specialty growth appear likely, but competition and pricing could eventually temper the trend. Janney’s increased stake suggests confidence that Cencora’s specialty pipeline will propel earnings in the medium term, but it’s an area to watch.
– How Will the Walgreens Relationship Evolve? Walgreens’ ongoing selldown of its Cencora stake (down to ~6% now) ([10]) raises questions about the future dynamic between the two firms. For now, supply agreements keep them tied at the hip, and Walgreens insists the partnership remains strong despite the share sales ([10]). However, 2029 (U.S. contract expiry) isn’t far off. Investors will be watching if Cencora can renew this crucial contract on favorable terms – or if Walgreens might leverage its remaining distribution options (Cardinal Health was a past partner) to negotiate price breaks. There’s also the broader question of whether Walgreens’ strategic turmoil (the company is struggling financially and even exploring a private equity buyout ([12])) could impact order volumes or timeliness of payments (Walgreens accounts for 38% of Cencora’s receivables ([2])). Janney likely believes Cencora has the quality of service and scale to keep Walgreens as a satisfied customer. Still, this customer concentration will remain an overhang until long-term contracts are secured.
– Will the New Diversification Pay Off? The move into operating specialty physician clinics via the Retina Consultants acquisition is a bold strategic expansion. It offers higher-margin revenue outside pure distribution and potential synergies (supplying those clinics, leveraging data, etc.). However, it also stretches Cencora’s capabilities. An open question is how smoothly Cencora can integrate and run a healthcare provider business. Success could mean Cencora finds a new growth engine (possibly replicating the model in other specialties), which would justify the acquisition’s price tag. Failure, however, would be costly and distracting. This acquisition will be a key storyline in coming quarters. Janney’s increased position may indicate optimism that Cencora’s management (which has a strong track record with past integrations like Alliance Healthcare) will execute well and unlock value from RCA. If they do, Cencora’s growth rate and valuation multiple could both improve. If not, investors will scrutinize the capital allocation decision.
– How Will Capital Returns Evolve? With substantial cash flows, Cencora has been balancing reinvestment and shareholder returns. After the RCA deal, the company’s priority may tilt toward debt reduction to maintain its credit metrics, potentially slowing the pace of buybacks in the short term. However, once leverage stabilizes, Cencora could resume significant buybacks given its remaining authorization (~$1.3B) and ongoing cash generation ([6]). Also, given the low payout ratio, one wonders if Cencora might eventually accelerate dividend growth beyond the token 5% raises. Its peers have somewhat higher yields (Cardinal Health’s yield is ~2–3%), so there could be room to entice income investors if growth investments don’t require all free cash. The open question is whether management will continue prioritizing share repurchases (which quietly boost EPS) or shift towards a more meaningful dividend over time. Janney, as a shareholder, likely appreciates the buybacks (tax-efficient returns), but income-focused holders might lobby for a higher dividend. Any change in capital return policy will signal management’s confidence in free cash flow outlook.
– Are There Any Red Flags on the Horizon? Thus far, Cencora has navigated its challenges adeptly – settling opioid claims, integrating acquisitions, and delivering consistent earnings beats. Investors will nonetheless remain alert for any cracks: for example, margin erosion (could indicate pricing pressure or cost inflation in distribution), signs of lost market share (if smaller rivals or direct sourcing by large customers pick up), or regulatory changes (like new drug pricing rules that cut distributor compensation). Another area to watch is management continuity and incentives. Cencora’s experienced CEO, Steve Collis, has led since 2011; any leadership transition could introduce uncertainty. Additionally, the company’s strategy to rebrand and reposition as a “healthcare solutions” provider means it will likely continue looking beyond traditional distribution for growth – investors will need to judge each move (like the RCA deal) on its merits. So far, nothing glaring stands out as a misstep, but the execution risks described earlier mean the stock isn’t without volatility potential if the narrative changes.
Conclusion: Janney’s purchase of additional Cencora shares suggests a conviction that the company’s fundamentals are strong and trending positively. In many ways, Cencora hits a sweet spot for a long-term equity investor: it operates an essential business in healthcare with high barriers to entry, it’s posting steady growth fueled by favorable industry trends, and it boasts shareholder-friendly financial management – all while trading at a reasonable valuation. The company’s low dividend yield belies the significant value being returned via consistent dividend hikes and share buybacks ([6]) ([6]). Meanwhile, Cencora’s prudent balance sheet (low net debt and long-dated maturities) provides stability even as it takes on new opportunities ([6]). There are certainly risks to monitor – from the dependency on Walgreens and large ongoing legal payouts to the integration of new ventures – but Cencora has demonstrated an ability to adapt and thrive in the complex pharma ecosystem. Janney’s increased stake may well be a bet that Cencora’s management will continue delivering: capitalizing on the specialty drug boom, managing risks, and perhaps surprising the market with how effectively it expands its scope. For investors reading this, “why did Janney buy?” can be answered by the confluence of Cencora’s stable core business and its avenues for growth. In a volatile market, Cencora offers a rare combination of defensive resilience and growth potential, which is precisely what many institutional investors seek. Janney’s move is a vote of confidence in that narrative – and now we’ll watch to see if Cencora lives up to these expectations in the coming years.
Sources:
1. MarketBeat – Janney Montgomery Scott LLC Acquires 2,058 Shares of Cencora, Inc. ([1]) ([1]) 2. SEC 10-K FY2024 – Dividend History and Increase Table ([6]) ([6]) 3. SEC 10-K FY2024 – Debt Structure and Credit Facilities (Sept 30, 2024) ([6]) ([6]) 4. Reuters – Cencora profit forecasts and specialty drug revenue growth ([5]) ([4]) 5. Reuters – Walgreens reduces stake in Cencora (august 2024 & Feb 2025 sales) ([10]) 6. SEC filings – Share Repurchase authorizations and amounts (FY2023-FY2024) ([6]) ([6]) 7. SEC 10-K FY2023 – Opioid Settlement accrual and payouts ([2]) ([2]) 8. SEC 10-K FY2023 – Major customers contribution (Walgreens 26%, Express Scripts 14%) ([2]) 9. Reuters – Cencora cybersecurity incident disclosure (2024) ([11]) 10. SEC 8-K (Nov 2024) – Acquisition of Retina Consultants of America terms ([6]) ([6])
Sources
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For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
