Overview and Recent Developments
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ: DJT) – the company behind former President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform and media ventures – has recently made headlines with an audacious pivot into cryptocurrency. In May 2025, DJT announced plans to raise $2.5 billion in new capital specifically to purchase Bitcoin ([1]) ([2]). This financing will come via $1.5 billion in new common stock and $1.0 billion in convertible notes issued at a ~35% premium to the share price ([2]). If completed, this would represent one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury allocations ever, echoing MicroStrategy’s playbook of using corporate funds to hoard crypto. CEO Devin Nunes touted the move as aligning with the company’s “America First” principles, calling Bitcoin a “crown jewel” asset that symbolizes financial freedom ([3]) ([2]). The Trump family itself – which indirectly owns ~114 million DJT shares via Donald Trump’s trust – has been expanding its crypto bets across NFTs, meme coins, and even a bitcoin mining venture ([3]) ([2]).
Investors reacted warily to DJT’s bold crypto gambit. DJT stock initially fell 6–10% on the news as the market digested the dilution and risk of this strategy ([1]) ([4]). The company framed the “Bitcoin reserve” as a hedge against what it calls financial institution bias or potential “de-banking,” aiming to protect the firm from financial institution discrimination by holding hard assets off the traditional banking grid ([5]). This pivot is part of a broader strategy to grow DJT beyond social media into fintech and digital assets. The company is launching “Truth⁺” streaming services and a Truth.Fi financial brand, including crypto-friendly exchange-traded funds and Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) themed around “America-First” values ([6]) ([7]). It even entered a joint venture with Crypto.com in August 2025 to invest in Cronos (CRO) tokens and form a new crypto treasury-focused company (via a SPAC merger) ([8]) ([8]). In short, DJT is aggressively repositioning itself from a niche social media player into a broader digital media and crypto finance enterprise.
Dividend Policy & Yield
DJT currently pays no dividend, and no distributions are expected in the foreseeable future ([9]). This is unsurprising given the company’s early-stage, high-growth orientation and lack of positive earnings. Trump Media only began monetizing its Truth Social user base through advertising in 2023, and revenues remain minimal (on the order of hundreds of thousands per quarter) ([10]). With operations still unprofitable (net losses in recent quarters), management is retaining all capital to fund expansion – from social media features to streaming content and now digital asset investments. The recent $2.5 billion capital raise will be deployed entirely into Bitcoin for the corporate treasury, not returned to shareholders ([1]). Likewise, AFFO/FFO metrics are not applicable here, as DJT is not a REIT and has negligible operating cash flow. Any discussion of future dividends would be premature until the company demonstrates consistent earnings or positive Funds From Operations. Investors should assume a 0% yield and that all cash is being reinvested into growth initiatives (and speculative assets like crypto) rather than income distribution ([9]). The stock’s appeal, therefore, hinges on capital appreciation (and perhaps Bitcoin upside), not on dividend return.
Leverage, Debt Maturities & Balance Sheet Strength
Prior to its crypto pivot, DJT’s balance sheet was debt-free and flush with cash, thanks to the proceeds from its SPAC merger and PIPE financing. As of Q1 2025, the company held $759 million in cash and short-term investments and had virtually no traditional debt ([2]) ([11]). This war chest gave Trump Media a “strong balance sheet,” and the firm was burning cash at a modest rate of under $10 million per quarter, providing a long runway for operations and expansion ([11]). However, the new financing plan alters the picture by adding $1 billion in convertible senior notes to fund the Bitcoin purchase ([5]). The convertible notes are being placed privately with institutional investors; they carry a conversion price about 35% above the pre-announcement stock level, indicating lenders expect upside (or are cushioned against immediate dilution) ([2]). Key terms like coupon rate and maturity have not been fully disclosed in press releases, but such notes typically have medium-term maturities (e.g. ~5 years). Until conversion, this $1 billion will sit as debt on DJT’s books – a new leverage element for a company that, so far, has relied mostly on equity funding.
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On a pro forma basis post-raise, DJT’s capital structure will consist of roughly $1 billion in debt and a much larger equity base (expanded by the $1.5 billion new stock issuance). The debt-to-total capitalization will remain moderate – roughly 18% debt vs 82% equity if using the market cap (~$4.6 B) and new debt figures ([9]). Importantly, the company’s liquidity remains strong: after raising the funds, DJT will hold ~$2.5 billion in Bitcoin reserves alongside the existing $759 million cash ([2]). In theory this gives over $3 billion in liquid/tradable assets, greatly exceeding all liabilities. That positions DJT more like an investment vehicle or “crypto holding company” with substantial asset backing. However, Bitcoin’s notorious volatility means the real value of those reserves could swing wildly – a critical consideration for leverage. A steep drop in BTC price would erode the asset coverage for that $1 billion note. The notes are convertible, which reduces default risk if equity value holds up (investors may convert to shares rather than demand cash at maturity). In summary, leverage is still modest for now, but debt investors are essentially betting on Bitcoin and DJT’s equity**. There are no significant near-term maturities to worry about – this new debt is likely the only major obligation and presumably comes due several years out. As a young public company, DJT has no history of refinancing to evaluate, but its large cash/crypto balance should help cover interest payments and provide flexibility to handle the notes at maturity.
Coverage and Cash Flow
Given DJT’s negative earnings, traditional coverage ratios (like EBITDA/interest or FFO/debt service) are not meaningful yet. The company is not generating positive EBITDA or FFO; in fact net losses continue, albeit much smaller than during the SPAC-merger phase. In its first quarter as a public entity (Q1 2024), DJT reported a massive $327.6 million net loss – largely due to one-time transaction and stock-based expenses from the merger ([10]) ([10]). By Q1 2025, the quarterly loss had narrowed dramatically to $31.7 million ([10]). Stripping out non-cash charges, the core operating cash burn was only ~$9.7 million that quarter ([11]). This indicates that, outside of special items, DJT’s ongoing cash burn is relatively low for a social media startup – thanks in part to minimal revenue-sharing or content costs on its platform and a lean workforce. The firm has also been earning interest on its large cash balance: in Q1 2025, it recorded **net interest income, as interest from $759 million cash exceeded any interest expense ([10]). That interest income (~$7.8 million net) actually helped offset operating losses ([10]).
Going forward, however, coverage metrics will become a concern as DJT takes on the $1 billion convertible debt. The interest rate on these notes hasn’t been publicly stated, but even a modest coupon will introduce multi-million dollar interest expense**. Without significant improvement in operating profit, DJT will rely on its cash and investment income to cover interest costs. In effect, the company is self-funding its interest out of the same pool of capital it raised. The good news is that with over $3 billion in liquid assets post-deal, DJT can comfortably pay interest for many years even if operating cash flow stays negative. For example, a hypothetical 5% coupon on $1 billion would require $50 million a year – a burden the company’s cash and the income from its Bitcoin holdings (if any yield or appreciation is realized) could handle. Interest coverage ratio measured by (EBITDA/Interest) will remain below 1.0 until the core business turns profitable, meaning operating earnings won’t cover fixed charges. However, cash coverage (cash + investments relative to obligations) is extremely high – essentially the company has years of interest payments in the bank. Additionally, management asserts that their low ongoing expenses and robust liquidity “fully enable it to pursue all expansion plans” without financial strain ([11]). Still, investors should monitor whether DJT’s ventures (Truth Social, streaming, fintech products) can ramp up revenue to eventually cover costs – otherwise the company is depleting reserves over time. Any severe drop in Bitcoin’s price would also influence these dynamics by reducing DJT’s asset base (and potentially forcing impairments, though accounting rules for crypto are evolving). At this stage, coverage is not about traditional earnings, but about having sufficient reserves to fund operations and debt service until (or unless) the business achieves self-sustaining cash flow.
Valuation and Comps
DJT’s valuation looks stretched by conventional metrics, reflecting its status as a speculative growth and meme-driven stock. At around $16–17 per share, DJT’s market capitalization is roughly $4.6 billion ([9]). This lofty value contrasts sharply with the company’s tiny revenues – just $0.8 million in Q1 2025 (a ~$3–4 million annual run-rate) ([10]). The stock thus trades at an astronomical Price/Sales multiple (well over 1,000× trailing revenue). Even factoring in growth (revenue was up 7% year-on-year in Q1 ([10])), the top-line is so small that any traditional P/E or PEG ratio is not meaningful (net income is negative). Instead, the market is valuing DJT largely on intangible factors and asset values: the strength of the Trump brand/community, the platform’s potential reach, and now the embedded value of large Bitcoin holdings. In some sense, DJT might be analyzed as a hybrid of a social media company and a crypto asset play. Post-Bitcoin purchase, the company will own ~$2.5 billion of digital assets. If we treat those like treasury assets, one could argue roughly half of DJT’s market cap is backed by hard assets (Bitcoin + cash). The remaining ~$2 billion of market cap can be viewed as the market’s valuation of the Truth Social platform, Truth+ streaming service, and future fintech business. For ~9 million registered users (as of early 2024) and only ~5 million monthly active visits ([12]) ([13]), that implies a hefty valuation per user – signaling that investors expect the platform’s engagement or monetization to improve significantly.
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Comparable companies are hard to find given DJT’s unusual mix of politics, media, and crypto. However, looking at some benchmarks: Rumble Inc. (NASDAQ: RUM), a right-leaning video platform, trades around a ~$2 billion market cap with about 50–80 million monthly active users and higher annual revenue (~$40 million). By that rough yardstick, DJT’s $4.6 billion valuation for a single-digit million user base is rich. It suggests a large “Trump premium” – investors pricing in the devotion of Trump’s follower base and the influence of his name. Another parallel is MicroStrategy (MSTR), which pivoted to hold ~$4 billion of Bitcoin. MSTR’s market cap tends to closely track its Bitcoin holdings (often at a slight premium or discount). In DJT’s case, once the Bitcoin is acquired, the stock could trade somewhat tethered to crypto sentiment – rising if Bitcoin surges and vice versa – effectively becoming a Bitcoin proxy stock. Notably, DJT’s beta is 4.6, extremely high ([9]), which reflects the stock’s outsized volatility relative to the broader market. This high beta and the -51% year-to-date performance ([9]) underscore that DJT behaves more like a speculative asset than a fundamentals-driven investment at present. Traditional valuation metrics (P/E, EV/EBITDA) will remain not applicable until DJT generates positive earnings. For now, investors are valuing a story: the prospect that Trump Media can eventually monetize its niche audience and the idea that its crypto-heavy treasury strategy could pay off big if crypto markets boom. That makes the stock’s valuation highly sentiment-driven and subject to rapid swings on news or social media buzz – in line with its “meme stock” reputation ([14]).
Key Risks
1. Cryptocurrency Volatility: DJT is about to bet an enormous sum on Bitcoin. This introduces significant balance sheet risk. A sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price could erode shareholder equity and even jeopardize the value backing the new $1 billion convertible notes. Management is essentially converting half the company’s assets into a volatile commodity. This strategy mirrors MicroStrategy’s high-risk approach, and while it could yield outsized gains if Bitcoin soars, it could just as easily produce outsized losses or impairments. Investors must be prepared for extreme volatility in DJT’s reported financials (and possibly its stock price) tied to crypto market swings ([1]) ([4]).
2. Execution & Monetization Risk: Despite the Trump brand cachet, the company’s core platforms – Truth Social and Truth+ – have struggled to grow beyond a niche audience. With ~8–9 million total sign-ups and only a few million active users, scale is limited ([12]) ([13]). Monetizing a politically oriented, relatively small social network is challenging: advertisers are wary of controversial content, and user growth has been sluggish in a crowded social media landscape ([13]). Even the streaming service Truth+ is up against formidable competition for content and eyeballs. If user growth stalls or engagement remains low, advertising and subscription revenues may stay inconsequential, undermining the long-term business model. The expansion into fintech products (SMAs, ETFs, etc.) is unproven – it’s unclear if Trump’s follower base will translate into significant adoption of investment products ([7]). There’s a real risk that DJT’s various initiatives won’t generate meaningful cash flow, leaving the company reliant on its raised capital (or additional financings) to sustain operations.
3. Regulatory and Political Risk: Trump Media operates at the intersection of politics, finance, and tech – a recipe for scrutiny. Regulators have already taken interest: U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, for example, has questioned oversight of DJT’s planned crypto ETFs and Bitcoin reserve ([2]). There’s a risk the SEC could delay or deny approvals for the company’s crypto-related financial products, or impose conditions that hamper their rollout. Additionally, DJT’s affiliation with President Trump raises unique concerns. The company explicitly warned investors that Trump’s legal or political troubles could harm the brand ([15]). We’ve seen this play out: when Trump was convicted in the NYC “hush money” trial in 2024, DJT’s stock fell sharply (~9% in after-hours) on the news ([15]). Any future indictments, lawsuits, or political controversies around Trump could spook investors or advertisers. On the flip side, the company’s close ties to an active political figure might invite partisan regulatory pressure if administrations change. Also notable, DJT is planning to issue ETFs and manage tokens while being led by a sitting U.S. President’s interests – something that could become a flashpoint for regulators or Congress concerned about conflicts of interest in financial markets ([2]).
4. Governance and Concentration Risk: Corporate governance is another concern. Donald Trump (via his family trust) remains the dominant shareholder – he held about 65% at merger closing, and even after dilution likely controls around 40% of outstanding shares ([3]). This insider control means Trump’s personal priorities could heavily influence DJT’s strategy. There’s a risk of conflicts of interest, such as blurring lines between presidential duties and business promotion. Indeed, Trump has reportedly hosted events (like a dinner for $TRUMP memecoin investors) that mix his political stature with personal business ventures ([5]). For minority shareholders, such entanglements are red flags: they raise questions about whether management decisions truly maximize shareholder value or serve other ends. Additionally, the management team’s depth and experience is a consideration. CEO Devin Nunes is a former Congressman with limited corporate leadership background; the COO recently resigned (Sept 2024) amid internal disputes ([14]). High executive turnover – DJT has also changed auditors multiple times – can indicate instability in financial controls ([15]). Notably, the company’s former SPAC sponsor had conflicts with TMTG’s management, leading to litigation and an $18 million SEC settlement for DWAC ([16]) ([16]). Frequent auditor changes and legal spats signal potential governance issues. All these factors add up to elevated governance risk for investors.
5. “Meme Stock” Volatility: DJT has been characterized as a meme stock, subject to sudden swings based on retail sentiment and social media chatter ([14]). Retail investors on platforms like Reddit or Truth Social itself can drive sharp rallies or crashes disconnected from fundamentals. While volatility can offer trading opportunities, it also means the stock price may not reflect fair value at any given time. Liquidity events – like Trump’s lock-up expiration (when he became eligible to sell shares) – have already caused notable price drops ([14]). High short interest or speculation around political events could similarly whipsaw the stock. Extreme beta (4.6) implies holding DJT is far riskier than holding the average stock ([9]). Investors should be prepared for meme-like behavior: large daily moves, potential short squeezes, or declines amplified by negative publicity.
Red Flags and Unresolved Issues
– Financial Reporting Red Flags: As mentioned, DJT’s path to the public markets was bumpy. The company’s SPAC partner (DWAC) had to pay an $18 million penalty for regulatory lapses, and the merger process saw disagreements between TMTG and the SPAC management ([16]) ([16]). DJT also switched auditors several times in its early reporting periods ([15]), which can indicate difficulties in financial reporting or disagreements over accounting treatments. Moreover, DJT’s first public quarter included a huge $311 million non-cash charge related to the merger ([15]) – while largely an accounting formality, it highlights the complexity of the deal. Investors should keep an eye on the company’s internal controls and whether it can produce timely, clean financial statements going forward.
– Legal Battles and Shareholder Dilution: There are outstanding legal disputes and quirks from the merger. For instance, DJT was recently ordered by a Delaware court to issue 800,000 shares to a SPAC sponsor affiliate (ARC Global) to settle a claim over merger entitlements ([14]). This suggests not all integration issues were smooth – and it resulted in unplanned dilution for existing shareholders (though relatively small). The Trump Media team has also engaged in defamation lawsuits against certain media outlets ([4]). While defending the company’s reputation is understandable, these lawsuits (and any against the company) could distract management and incur costs. Importantly, former President Trump’s potential stock sales hang as a question mark: although he hasn’t sold shares publicly, the mere possibility has pressured the stock in the past ([14]). If he ever decides to liquidate a portion of his ~40% stake (for asset diversification or legal expenses), it could flood the market with supply. There’s no indication of this happening imminently, but it’s a latent red flag for stock supply/demand dynamics.
– Operational Concentration: DJT’s fortunes are heavily tied to one person and one community. Donald Trump’s personal brand is the company’s biggest asset – and liability. User engagement on Truth Social, for example, often centers around Trump’s own posts and popularity. If for any reason Trump became unable to promote or participate in the platform (due to legal issues, health, or choosing to return to mainstream platforms), user activity could drop, hurting the ecosystem. Additionally, DJT’s user base is concentrated in a particular political demographic. This raises an open question: can Truth Social or Truth+ expand beyond a partisan audience to achieve broader appeal? If not, growth may plateau and limit the upside for advertisers and content partnerships. That narrow focus could be a red flag for long-term scalability.
– Unproven Strategic Pivot: The aggressive move into crypto and financial services can be seen as a red flag in itself – possibly indicating that management isn’t confident the core social media business will ever be highly profitable. Jumping into Bitcoin treasuries and launching ETFs/SMAs with partners is a major strategic shift ([7]). It puts DJT in competition (or partnership) with specialized fintech firms and subjects it to a whole different set of regulations (SEC, FINRA, etc.). Execution risk here is high: if these initiatives fail or face delays (e.g., an ETF rejection by the SEC), DJT could be left having spent considerable effort and capital for little return. In the worst case, some might see this as a distraction or even a gimmick – i.e. using buzzwords like crypto to prop up the stock short-term. That said, if successful, the pivot could open new revenue streams; but until proven, it remains an open question and a potential red flag if it diverts focus from fixing the core media business.
Open Questions for Investors
1. Will the Bitcoin Bet Pay Off? DJT’s bold Bitcoin reserve plan effectively positions it as a quasi-crypto ETF. This invites the question: Is this an astute treasury management move or an ill-timed gamble? Bitcoin’s price trajectory will heavily influence DJT’s future financial health. If BTC appreciates significantly over the coming years, DJT’s assets (and arguably its stock price) could swell, vindicating management’s strategy. But if crypto enters a prolonged bear market, how long will DJT hold its conviction? Investors should ask what risk management strategy (if any) the company has – e.g., would they ever hedge or trim the position, or are they “all-in” on hodling? Also, will DJT account for Bitcoin on a mark-to-market basis or only realize gains when sold? The accounting treatment could affect reported earnings volatility. This open question boils down to whether shareholders are comfortable with DJT doubling as a crypto vehicle, in addition to an operating company.
2. Can Truth Social Break Out of Its Niche? To justify its valuation as a social media play, Truth Social needs to grow meaningfully or drive much higher revenue per user. So far, it remains a niche network with ~5 million monthly visitors and engagement largely tied to Trump’s own presence ([13]). With Trump now back in the White House (in this scenario), will he continue posting exclusively on Truth Social, or will he pivot to more mainstream channels for broader reach? Thus far he has avoided returning fully to Twitter/Facebook ([13]), which has helped keep his hardcore base on Truth Social. But this balance might shift given the demands of office. An open question is whether Truth Social can attract new users beyond the political right. Management has touted “free speech” as the differentiator, but content moderation controversies (reports of banning Trump critics despite a lax approach to other content ([13])) may limit its appeal. Investors should watch user growth metrics, app download trends, and any moves to refresh the platform experience. The introduction of new features (e.g., the Groups feature, international launch) shows some effort ([10]) – but will it move the needle? In short, scalability of the user base remains a big unknown.
3. How Will the New Fintech Ventures Perform? DJT’s foray into financial products – the Truth-branded SMAs and planned ETFs in partnership with Crypto.com – is untested ([7]). The concept of “America-First” investment portfolios targeting politically aligned themes is innovative, but will it gain traction? There’s a question of distribution: will these products be marketed only to the Truth Social user base (and is that sufficient demand?), or will they try to reach the broader investor community? Additionally, the fee structure and economics of these ventures matter – DJT plans to seed up to $250 million of its own cash into the SMAs ([7]), but the real upside would come from earning management fees on outside investor money. It’s unclear how quickly or widely they can gather assets under management in these vehicles. There’s also execution risk in rolling out ETFs, which require regulatory approval and strong compliance infrastructure. Open questions include: Can DJT successfully launch a suite of ETFs in 2025–26 amid regulatory skepticism? What differentiation do these products offer in a crowded market of thematic funds? And will these financial initiatives start generating meaningful revenue, or are they primarily a branding extension? Until we see a few quarters of results from Truth.Fi products, their impact on the valuation is mostly speculative.
4. Is the Stock Sustainable at Current Valuation? With DJT’s stock having swung from a meme-fueled post-SPAC high (market cap briefly over $9 billion) to now about half that ([12]) ([9]), investors are rightly wondering where it goes from here. The sustainability of the valuation depends on execution of growth plans and perhaps external factors (crypto prices, political climate). One open question: Does DJT have plans to raise even more capital or do secondary offerings? The current raise is huge, but if further opportunities or cash needs arise (e.g., acquisitions, more crypto buys, funding Truth Social if losses widen), additional dilution could be on the table. Also, with such a high retail ownership and meme profile, can the stock stabilize into a range that reflects fundamental progress? Or will it remain a trader’s playground prone to spikes and drops? The fact that the company’s beta is exceptionally high at 4.6 ([9]) suggests the latter for now. For long-term investors, an open question is what fundamental milestone (user growth, breakeven EBITDA, etc.) might anchor DJT’s valuation to reality. In absence of clear milestones, sentiment will rule – making it hard to predict if today’s ~$16 share price is cheap (if one believes in the vision) or expensive (given the tiny financials).
5. Governance and Conflict Questions: Lastly, much remains to be seen on how DJT navigates being effectively controlled by a sitting U.S. President’s family. While Trump has placed his holdings in a revocable trust, he is far from a passive owner ([3]). How will the company handle potential conflicts of interest? For example, if regulatory policies that could benefit DJT (like crypto regulations or SEC appointments) come up, will there be additional scrutiny or self-imposed constraints? Will Trump’s dual role as politician and media owner prompt any corporate governance safeguards at DJT (such as independent board oversight)? The company’s board and management composition, and their actions, will be telling. So far, a close circle of Trump loyalists manages DJT, which raises the question of whether there’s enough independent perspective to act in all shareholders’ interests. Clarity on these governance practices – e.g., will Trump pledge not to sell shares while in office, or how the company handles use of his likeness/presidency in promotions – would help investors assess the longer-term risk. Until then, the influence of Trump the individual looms over DJT in ways other public companies don’t experience. Investors should keep asking: Is DJT being run as a serious, stand-alone enterprise or as an extension of Donald Trump’s personal and political brand? The answer will greatly affect its risk profile and success.
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Disclosure: This report is a factual analysis based on publicly available sources. The author has no position in DJT at the time of writing. Sources: Official SEC filings, Trump Media investor materials, and reputable financial media were used to ensure accuracy (see inline citations).
Sources
- https://infofinance.com/en/news/trump-media-to-buy-2-5-billion-in-bitcoin-djt-shares-drop-10-amid-bold-crypto-move
- https://reuters.com/business/trump-media-raise-25-billion-fund-bitcoin-treasury-2025-05-27/
- https://cnbc.com/2025/05/27/djt-trump-media-bitcoin.html
- https://axios.com/2025/05/27/trump-media-bitcoin-truth-social
- https://apnews.com/article/c2db8214871452b88950bc10b567d1ec
- https://ir.tmtgcorp.com/home-page/
- https://stocktitan.net/news/DJT/trump-media-launches-separately-managed-0hm31dae5d9g.html
- https://reuters.com/legal/government/trump-media-cryptocom-announce-deal-form-crypto-treasury-firm-2025-08-26/
- https://cnbc.com/quotes/DJT
- https://streetinsider.com/SEC%2BFilings/Form%2B%2B10-Q%2B%2B%2B%2B%2B%2B%2BTrump%2BMedia%2B%26%2BTechnology%2B%2BFor%3A%2BMar%2B31/24774283.html
- https://last10k.com/sec-filings/djt/0001140361-25-028418.htm
- https://reuters.com/markets/us/trumps-media-company-shares-rise-after-stellar-debut-2024-03-27/
- https://apnews.com/article/7437d5dcc491a1459a078195ae547987
- https://apnews.com/article/ca5aa7eb862ab25096de7591d4540c18
- https://apnews.com/article/da9809613478652c5d05afada41a5f72
- https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312523181413/d457685d8k.htm
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
