Profit Alerts: THE MORNING RIP – June 3, 2024

Good morning, market maniacs. It’s 8:15 AM ET, you’re running on coffee and FOMO, and here’s what actually matters before the opening bell.

MARKET OPENERS

• S&P 500 futures +0.25% at 5,345
• Nasdaq futures +0.40% at 17,220
• Dow futures +0.15% at 38,900
• Brent crude $75.50 (+1.2%), WTI $72.80 (+1.5%)
• Gold $2,330 (–0.1%)
• Bitcoin $64,800 (+2.3%)

Main Headlines

1) OPEC’s Supply Shock: Oil’s Return to Surplus
Yesterday Bloomberg dropped a bomb: OPEC agreed to pump more barrels starting July, locking in a new surplus. Translation? Cartel shenanigans—we’re going to see prices grind lower into Q3. Drill baby drill isn’t just a meme—U.S. producers, step up. Consumers, enjoy your cheaper fill-ups while you can.

2) Treasury Market Whipsawed by Fed, Data & Deficits
Barron’s flags three wildcards for bonds: Fed chatter, yesterday’s mixed payrolls, and Washington’s fiscal suicide watch. The 10-year yield ripped from 4.25% to 4.40% on the jobless‐claims noise alone. If you’re riding duration hoping for a soft landing, think again. Volatility is the only sure thing here.

3) Tesla’s Q2 Surprise?
TipRanks is buzzing: analysts have quietly ratcheted up Q2 delivery estimates. Will Elon’s autopilot hype translate into a beat? Maybe. But don’t forget the last time Tesla “surprised,” shares promptly puked the next day. Play it smart—consider covered calls or trim into the run.

4) Bitcoin’s Quietest Breakout Yet
AMBCrypto: BTC just popped above $64k on the lowest volume we’ve seen in months. That’s not a red flag—it’s stealth accumulation by the big whales. If you’re long crypto, double-check your seatbelt; volatility’s coming, but the trend’s your friend until proven otherwise.

POLITICAL & GLOBAL SPOTLIGHT

1) Musk’s New Political Party
In an AP scoop, Elon says he’s launching a party after clashing with Trump over tax cuts. Call it the “SpaceX-it” plan—probably more trolling than policy. But if even a sliver of Silicon Valley follows him, you could see some real disruption in the next election cycle. Keep an eye on any tweets stamping “politics” next to the SpaceX logo.

2) U.S.–E.U. Trade Deal Tease
The Washington Post reports Team Biden is near a limited deal with Brussels—industrial goods for agriculture, rollbacks on some steel tariffs. It’s not the grand bargain Trump threatened, but it’ll calm markets if signed by month-end. Bulls, rejoice; bears, hide again.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST

• May JOLTS report at 10 AM ET—labor market heat check
• Fed minutes from the June meeting at 2 PM ET—any hint of “higher for longer”?
• Initial jobless claims, May factory orders

BOTTOM LINE

• Equities: long selective cyclicals
• Bonds: avoid duration hell
• Oil: short the bounce
• Crypto: strap in

That’s your no-BS morning briefing. Go deploy your capital—or don’t. The market doesn’t care.

Market Commentary: Surplus Shocks, Bond Whipsaws & Crypto Breakouts

Here’s what they’re not telling you about the latest oil bombshell: OPEC just locked in a surplus starting July, according to “OPEC’s New Supply Shock Locks In Oil Market’s Return to Surplus” from Bloomberg. The real story is we’re about to watch US producers bleed away margins as prices grind lower. Consumers get a win, sure, but anyone long energy stocks better buckle up—this cartel move will sting Q3 earnings.

The real story is in bonds. As Barron’s warned in “Treasury Market Could Be Whipsawed by These 3 Things,” yields ripped from 4.25% to 4.40% because of Fed jawboning, mixed payrolls, and Washington’s fiscal suicide watch. Don’t buy the hype of a soft landing—volatility is the only guarantee when D.C. antics and central-bank chatter collide. If you’re hugging duration, you’re hugging a rattlesnake.

And don’t sleep on the stealth moves in Tesla and Bitcoin. TipRanks’ “Why Tesla Stock Could Surprise in Q2 Earnings” has bulls drooling, but remember the last time Tesla “beat” only to puke the next session. Play it smart—covered calls or trims, folks. Meanwhile, AMBCrypto’s “Bitcoin finally breaks accumulation silence” shows whales hoovering up BTC on the cheap. Strap in—crypto’s about to get wilder.